Heart Health

Three Years of Tirzepatide Cuts Predicted 10-Year Heart Disease Risk by 38%

Researchers analyzed data from the 3-year SURMOUNT-1 trial to estimate how tirzepatide affects predicted cardiovascular disease risk in adults with obesity or overweight and prediabetes. Using the Framingham Heart Study risk equation, they found that people taking tirzepatide 15 mg saw an absolute reduction of nearly 2% in predicted 10-year CVD risk by week 72, while those on placebo saw their risk increase. By week 176 (roughly 3.5 years), the gap widened further — tirzepatide users still showed lower risk, while placebo patients faced a nearly 4% absolute risk increase. The hazard ratio of 0.62 suggests a potential 38% reduction in cardiovascular events. The Framingham equation's predictive accuracy was validated against observed event data from the REWIND trial of dulaglutide, lending credibility to the modeling approach.