Brain HealthFive Simple Variables Predict 6-Year Dementia Risk With 87% Accuracy
Researchers built a machine learning model to predict who will develop mild cognitive impairment (MCI) over six years using just five variables anyone can measure without expensive tests: age, sex, education level, ability to perform daily tasks, and a baseline cognitive score. Trained on over 11,000 adults aged 60 and older from Chinese, English, and American health studies, the gradient boosting model achieved 87% accuracy internally and remained strong when tested on independent populations in England and the US. The tool is available as a free interactive web app. This matters because catching cognitive decline early — before full dementia sets in — opens a window for lifestyle and medical interventions that may slow progression, and this model makes early screening feasible even in low-resource primary care settings.
